![]() Instead of a static certainty born out of polls done before the election, or the slow plodding of a live results page, it jitters constantly as new information comes in - inspiring the confidence in math that one expects from 21st-century political hobbyists, and the violent mood swings of the most hardcore partisan.Ī lot of the emotional response to the needle has to do with the circumstances of its debut: an election that Clinton was heavily favored to win but that Donald Trump managed to pull out, with the needle inexorably tracking the way the candidates’ fortunes changed. It’s appeared five times, and each has inspired waves of excitement and nausea among a certain type of extremely online politics nerd. The needle was born of that Trump-era agita. and when she didn’t, the shock tarnished a lot of liberals’ (and reporters’) faith in polls at all. Of course, this all seemed like a good idea because it seemed like Hillary Clinton was definitely going to win. Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight and Nate Cohn (who, at the Times, is one of the needle’s masterminds) sniped at each other about the assumptions built into their models everyone got really huffy about correlated errors for a few days. The NYT election needle debuted in 2016, an election cycle in which sophisticated modeling of opinion polls (which went mainstream in 2012) had become so accepted that it seemed totally reasonable to use numbers to predict the future. ![]() Lee Zeldin, incumbent U.S.LIVE Election Results: Control of Congress. ![]() He was re-elected to a second term with 58% of the vote in 2016. The incumbent was Republican Lee Zeldin, who had represented the district since 2015. The 1st district is located in eastern Long Island and includes most of central and eastern Suffolk County. See also: New York's 1st congressional district Results of the 2018 United States House of Representatives elections in New York by district: DistrictĭistrNew York's 1st congressional district election United States House of Representatives elections in New York, 2018 Most news outlets report election results using only the primary affiliation of party registration of candidates rather than by the party nominees who are elected, and most pollsters group candidates the same way. As a result, New York ballots tend to list many political parties. New York is near unique among the states in that it allows electoral fusion (cross-endorsement). Nationally, the Democratic Party won control of the House of Representatives on election day. ĭemocrats won a total of 21 New York House seats, while Republicans won six. Chris Collins (R-27th District) was narrowly re-elected despite having been arrested on insider trading charges in August 2018. Claudia Tenney (R-22nd District) (defeated by Democrat Anthony Brindisi). John Faso (R-19th District) (defeated by Democrat Antonio Delgado), and Rep. Dan Donovan (R-11th District) (defeated by Democrat Max Rose), Rep. The defeated Republican incumbents were Rep. ![]() On November 6, 2018, the Democratic Party held the open seat in District 25 and defeated three Republican incumbents with the exception of Crowley, all Democratic incumbent members of Congress in New York were re-elected. In the JDemocratic primary in District 14, insurgent Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez upset longtime incumbent Rep. Louise Slaughter (D-25th District) on March 16, 2018. Prior to the 2018 elections, one New York House seat was vacant due to the death of Rep. Elections were held in all 27 of New York's congressional districts in 2018.
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